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Justification Justification of Red List Category This species is listed as Near Threatened as it almost meets the requirements for listing as threatened under criteria A2abc+3bc+4abc. It has an extremely large range and six subpopulations across which trends are variable. The population trend of the largest subpopulation, islandica, is unclear as is the trend of roselaari. The rufa and canutus subpopulations have both experienced population declines.
Two subpopulations use the East Asian-Australasian Flyway and have experienced significant declines owing to loss of habitat in the Yellow Sea. Should new research resolve uncertainties in the trends of several of these subpopulations the species may warrant uplisting or downlisting. Population justification The global population is estimated to number 891,000-979,000 individuals (Wetlands International 2015). The European population is estimated at 15,000-30,000 pairs, which equates to 30,000-60,000 mature individuals (BirdLife International 2015), and the population overwintering in Australia and the Americas have been estimated at 110,000 individuals (Hansen et al. 2016) and 44,763 individuals (Niles et al. 2010) respectively. Trend justification The islandica population trend shows a moderate decrease between 2003 and 2012, whilst the long-term trend is fluctuating (Nagy et al. 2014, Wetlands International 2018).
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However the European Red List of Birds suggests that the population is increasing strongly in the short-term and experiencing a moderate increase in the long-term (BirdLife International 2015). Van Roomen et al. (2014) found the population was stable/fluctuating in the short- and long-term. The canutus population decreased strongly in the short- and long-term (2003-2014 and 1979-2014, respectively) (van Roomen et al. The roselaari population trend is uncertain, but is possibly declining (Andres et al. The rufa population has undergone a significant decline in the last decade (Andres et al. The number of birds in Tierra del Fuego declined strongly (75% decrease) between 1985-2000 (52,244 individuals) and 2011-2013 (11,385 individuals) (USFWS 2014).
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Between 2010 and 2015 the population at Tierra del Fuego has varied in the range of 10,000-15,000 individuals (R.I.G. Morrison in litt. Whilst counts in Delaware Bay showed similarly large declines: 70% decrease between 1981-1983 (59,946 individuals) and 2005-2014 (18,387) (USFWS 2014). Approximately 10-14% of the global population uses the East Asian-Australasian Flyway. An analysis of monitoring data from around Australia and New Zealand found that both the piersmai and rogersi populations which use the flyway have experienced strong population declines, estimated at a 57.4% decrease over three generations (Studds et al. This decrease is supported by a study on adult survival. Survival in north-west Australia in late winter was constantly high however survival during periods away from Australia declined in 2011, with an annual survival rate of 0.67 (Piersma et al.
